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SINCE Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on February 17th, Serbs have staged violent demonstrations against the US and against many EU countries that supported the move. It is feared that recognition of Kosovo has set a dangerous precedent, with consequences far beyond its borders.
Violence in the Balkans, contained in recent years, is breaking out again, and the fact that the trigger is—not for the first time—events in Kosovo, bodes ill for the region. The burning of the US embassy in Belgrade and the attacks on other Western missions may be no more than the tip of the iceberg, as Serbs continue to show their anger and frustration over the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.
Their Government, led by the West’s one-time “favourite” Vojislav Kostunica, is largely to blame for the violence. They must have known that calling a huge demonstration of hundreds of thousands of people was going to be risky, particularly when the crowds were inflamed by nationalist rhetoric provided by some of the leading political lights in the country, including Prime Minister Kostunica himself. Yet the embassies, which would be natural targets of any violent spillover, were scarcely if at all protected. Some may have been reminded of the 1972 burning of the British embassy in Dublin after Bloody Sunday by a nationalist crowd while the police looked on. The muted expressions of regret from the Serbian Government speak volumes.
It would be easy to dismiss this as yet another example of Serb inat—stubbornness, defiance, a peculiarly Serb readiness to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face. But it also demonstrates how spectacularly the West has failed to read the warning signs. Last week’s violence had its origin in another lawless outbreak of violence in 2004 when Albanian frustration over the slow progress they saw towards their goal of independence led to attacks on Serbs and the burning of Orthodox churches and Serb houses in Kosovo, despite the presence of 18,000 NATO troops there, in what one UN official described as Kosovo’s Kristallnacht.
It was as a result of this that the Western countries decided that they would abandon their policy of improving standards before considering status, and move headlong towards granting Kosovo independence before there was another outburst of Kosovar nationalist anger directed at NATO troops. The argument ran that if we don’t give the Kosovo Albanians what they want they will increasingly resort to violence against what they now see as the occupying power: NATO. Thus, violence paid off.
Part of the justification of Western recognition of Kosovo independence as articulated in recent days is that it will contribute to regional stability. This is a specious argument to deploy as the largest country in the region, Serbia, is destabilised by losing 18 per cent of its territory, the cradle of its civilisation, against its will and by forceful amputation.
A second argument, that independence in Kosovo does not create a precedent and is sui generis, is equally spurious. The fact that it has effectively been a UN protectorate in the last eight years does not make it a unique case, as those who have declined to recognise Kosovo independence have been quick to point out. Spain, Romania, Cyprus all fear precisely the precedent which the UK and US Governments among others claim does not exist. Spain’s Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos characterised the recognition of Kosovo’s independence by his EU partners as opening Pandora’s box. The Catalans and Basques are already actively debating the issue.
Again one of the arguments deployed by Western foreign ministries in favour of recognition has been that the present situation is unsustainable. This is shorthand for the problem having been around too long, the brutality of the Milosevic era too terrible to expect the Albanians ever to accept Serbian sovereignty again whatever the niceties of international law, and a belief that the Serbs, despite initial protests, would quickly lie down, especially if offered some sweeteners in the shape of European association and ultimately EU membership....
[ End of sample | Please purchase the magazine for full articles ]
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Sir Ivor Roberts is President of Trinity College, Oxford, and a former British Ambassador to Yugoslavia, Ireland and Italy. |
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| Issue 5.3 |
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Free Markets
Behind the Food Crisis
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