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gave precious information. In their introductory chapter, Zhongwei Zhao and Fei Guo, the editors of the book, mention data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). But the authors of most of the studies are said to have presented their papers in a Conference in Canberra, Australia, in December 2003, not long after the census of 2000. Then came the work of editing and the book appeared in 2007, a fine work producing a quite technical but nevertheless readable book.
In between, Fei Nailin, in a key position at the NBS, proposed some thoughts and measures during one meeting of the heads of national statistical offices of East Asia countries, in November 2006, under the title “Lessons learnt from the 2005 One Percent Population Survey of China and Initial Plan for 2010 Round of Census”. NBS appears conscious that statistics must reach a new level of accuracy to be helpful. (1) There is no reason to doubt a priori the honesty of the Bureau. But we have to wait for the census to be conducted and the results published. Meanwhile, the book of 2007 obviously remains useful, but more than that, therein may be found its permanent value.
Indeed, the volume today offers an impressive and comprehensive record by well-known experts of the demographic challenges facing China. This makes the volume a reliable backdrop for comparisons in the future. Some have already been made after the 2005 “mini-census”; they will multiply after 2010, always with reference to the past and present consequences of political, economical and cultural decisions during the last decades. It will also be significant for demographic theories to see whether predictions are confirmed or not because demographic fluctuations are sometimes disconcerting and paradoxical. As mentioned by the editors, this goes beyond China and is of interest to the whole world.
The experts in demography whose contributions are presented here know that their attitude as demographers must rely on numbers and be as impartial as possible in their technical analysis. They succeed in the task, even when one remarks, for instance, that the NBS had to argue with agencies in charge of family planning to make sure that no discovery during the census that went against the official policy would lead to investigation and punishment. Next year changes in family planning regulations may diminish the fear of being fined for extra births, not only among people, but also among cadres whose careers are severely threatened if they do not reach the target imposed on them for population control.
Many other more technical problems, involving complex mathematical calculations, of previous censuses in China are raised in chapters covering fertility rate and population replacement, demographic consequences of induced abortion, changes in marriage patterns and sex-ratio, poverty, ageing, mortality, demographic trends in ethnic minorities, etc. Very little qualitative data is given. Here and there a phrase indicates an unstable or unjust situation, for example the education of children of migrant families or an opportunity not yet exploited, with a possible “second demographic dividend” thanks to the ageing population, but needing carefully crafted institutional arrangements.
Many pages of the book are surely above the level of even a well educated but not a high statistician reader. These pages contain important caveats for non-specialists using statistical data which are not too reliable. Actually, this was known; the specialist explains why so. The same authors, especially those of chapters 2 to 4, must be thanked for having interspersed their technical presentation with more readable sentences allowing an understanding of the issues at stake. Other chapters confirm stories which have become ordinary facts of life for millions of people in China, for instance among migrant populations or concerning marriage, new social conditions of women and of the elderly.
But one remains perplexed when comparing different chapters. If statistics deserve to be critically received, why do some experts seem to use them at face value without much apparent questioning in their presentation? Whatever the answer, students of China’s present society will benefit by reading carefully the whole book, which, with its bibliography and index, is a very practical reference work. It now greatly helps to avoid misleading or incomplete impressionist approaches by focusing on real social challenges deriving from demographic changes in China while waiting for the next census; then it will contribute to a better understanding of the significance of its results.
1. See: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/censuskb/attachments/2006CHN_11thEAsia-GUID836877
ce4db54fd38a03d9f1195c55fc.pdf.
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Dominique Tyl, S.J., was a contributor to China News Analysis, Hong Kong, and later worked in China in various work units; he then taught at Fujen Catholic University, Taipei, where he was appointed Director of the Socio-Cultural Research Center, and Director of the Graduate Institute of Translation and Interpretation Studies. He is now a member of the Macau Ricci Institute. |
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| Issue 6.3 |
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Remembering—
A Shared Duty
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